Sunday, August 16, 2015

Pak’s small nukes could make South Asia wobbly

Isn’t it time for India to wake up from its deep slumber after Pakistan successfully test fired a missile capable of carrying tactical (small) nuclear (nuke) warheads, that can lead to collateral damage in South Asia, even though in a limited area?

If Pakistan opts for mass production of these weapons, it could spell trouble for India, because if extremist groups manage to clinch them, these weapons would almost certainly be used against India. After all, these are small and portable nukes that are vulnerable to theft or can change hands at ease.

These tactical weapons, dubbed as “dirty bombs”, could be put to devastating use by the Pakistani army during border skirmishes.

Suppose there is troops build-up along the border in India as well as in Pakistan. Islamabad may set off these short range missiles with tiny nuclear bombs and aim it at Indian troops. In fact, US experts feel that Pakistan would almost certainly use them against India if a Kargil-like situation arises.

The effects of these nukes could result in Hiroshima or Nagasaki type long-term catastrophe but in a much smaller area, say within a 100 square km range.

The commando-style killing of Osama bin Laden has not only miffed Pakistan, but has also stirred up extremists hauled up in the country, who are desperately scouting for ways to retaliate with an attack on the US or its citizens. In case they are unable to do so, the next target could be India.

The move to opt for these small bombs is in the wake of fears in Pakistan that India could go in for a US-like strike in a bid to flush out Dawood Ibrahim, Hafeez Saeed and a host of others in India’s most-wanted list, which it has handed over to Pakistan.

Now, India needs to put its defence plans in the fast lane. With China on one side surging ahead with its nuclear weapons programme and with the country also helping Pakistan stockpile nukes, India also needs to ramp up its nuclear capabilities and catch up with Pakistan in the race at least (a couple of months back it was estimated that Pakistan has more nuclear weapons than India).

India had tested small nukes around the year 2000 but the project seems to have been shelved.

Also, this new trend started by Pakistan does not seem to augur well for both the nations. Higher the stockpile of small nukes would result in higher chances of these dirty bombs reaching unsafe hands. In fact, mass production of these weapons could even see criminals laying their hands on them one day.

Moreover, since these are small nukes, Pakistan (or may be India) could use them without much thought, unlike conventional nuclear weapons, which both the countries know could trigger irrepairable damage to the entire sub-continent.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Pakistan would stall its small nukes programme.

So, the only way forward for India is to outdo Pakistan and build an inventory of small nukes, even if it means that we are heading for a wobbly South East Asia in the near future.

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