Sunday, August 9, 2015

Slowdown may provide opportunity to invest in stocks

Standard and Poor’s has downgraded the US economy’s long-term sovereign credit rating to AA+ from AAA with a negative outlook and this could lead to another bout of global slowdown in the medium term, the effects of which are already being felt on the Indian stock markets (though this could be for the short term, providing an opportunity to invest).

For instance, on Wednesday, the Sensex fell to a six-week low, sliding below the 18,000-mark on US debt woes. In fact, the US crisis has had a domino effect on almost all global markets.

The 30-stock Sensex of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which opened at 17,970.19 points, ended the day (Wednesday) at 17,940.55 points, a fall of 169.34 points or 0.94 per cent from its previous close at 18,109.89 points on Tuesday.

The 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange was also down almost 1 per cent at 5,404.8 points.

Among the gainers on the Sensex pack were Reliance Infra, a rise of 2.76 per cent at Rs 560.55, ITC, which saw a rise of 0.9 per cent at Rs 206.65, Tata Power, up 0.71 per cent at Rs 1,286.60, and Hindalco Industries, which went up 0.52 per cent at Rs 165.70.

The losers (among Sensex stocks) were L&T, which slid 4.33 per cent at Rs 1,658.70. Tata Motors fell 3 per cent to Rs 927.75, DLF tanked 2.15 per cent to Rs 222.95 and Bajaj Auto fell 2.03 per cent to Rs 1,455.40.

Capital goods, healthcare, IT, auto and consumer durables were among the worst hit, owing to the selling. On the other hand, the BSE Mid-cap index closed 0.33 per cent lower while the BSE Small-cap index ended 0.66 per cent below.

The market breadth on the BSE was negative with only 1,160 stocks rising. About 1,706 scrips fell while 111 were unchanged.

As per data of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), foreign institutional investors or FIIs sold stocks worth $18.7 million on Wednesday.

The US crisis, which it is believed will turn serious, could see FIIs exit big time from the bourses in the short term and this could take a toll on Indian (as well as global) bourses. But for how long will be difficult to tell. This is likely to stymie the rise of the benchmark index, the Sensex for the short to medium term.

India may withstand the US crisis partly but will definitely be affected by it.

On the other hand, many are putting forward the argument that after the US was hit by the downgrade, emerging markets like India, Brazil and China could turn out to be attractive destinations for FIIs.

If this happens, it could be time to invest in some attractive stocks now. During the 2008 meltdown, a gloom gripped investors, most of who stayed away from the stock markets.

But very few saw an opportunity amid the subdued sentiment and picked up some attractive stocks at very low prices.

And the result: Most saw their stocks (and even mutual funds) almost double in two years (compare this to a government bond or bank fixed deposits, which double in eight and half to nine years). So, will this slowdown provide another opportunity to stock investors?

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