Showing posts with label Elections 2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections 2014. Show all posts
Monday, August 31, 2015
If Narendra Modi comes to power, Sensex may surge to 30,000 points by Diwali
Now, if Narendra Modi takes the coveted Prime Minister’s seat in Delhi, one thing is for sure: The Sensex and other stock market indices would see an unprecedented surge, setting the stage for a big revival of the stock market, so much so that the Sensex could touch the 30,000-points mark by this Diwali.
We are seeing a Modi wave that is likely to hit Delhi but how big this wave is is a big question. While some argue that Modi and his NDA team may miss the absolute majority mark and not form the government, many optimists feel that the NDA plus allies could touch the 300-seat mark in the Lok Sabha elections.
In case the former happens, the Sensex is going to dip to may be below 16,000 points and if the latter takes place, the benchmark index could inch closer to the 25,000-points mark (at least for now).
And marketmen seem to believe in the former: That the Modi wave is a giant one, and as a result, we have seen the Sensex soar past the 22,000-points mark and reach a new high almost every other day. The latest closing figure of the Sensex is 22,446 points, a surge of 60 points from the previous day’s close.
Till the elections are over, the large caps would be more or less stable over the looming uncertainty and the main players would be the unpredictable small and mid cap stocks.
On Tuesday though, the Nifty opened on a positive note and surged to an all-time high on the backdrop of profits in technology, oil and gas along with auto sectors.
This is a good indication as these sectors form the core of India’s industry, and if they continue to perform, the stock markets and India’s GDP growth (which reflect the mood of the economy) are set for a long-term growth.
If Modi comes to power, it could even be possible that the Sensex could surge to an unthinkable high of over 40,000 (yes 40,000) points in may be three years’ time.
We are not sure about others, but marketmen firmly believe that Modi would come to power anyhow and give a fillip to the markets, taking the Sensex up to 30,000 points probably by Diwali.
Friday, August 28, 2015
Submarine disasters: If Narendra Modi becomes PM, India must overhaul its defence policy in favour of the US, dump Russia
It slowly seems that BJP’s Narendra Modi is becoming popular by each passing day and if he clinches the Prime Minister’s throne (which is slowly becoming a possibility), his first job would be to overhaul the defence policy that has been followed by the Congress for decades (in favour of Russia and against the Americans), especially in the wake of the recent submarine disasters.
A few months ago, it looked like the BJP would bag no more than 160-180 seats in the forthcoming parliamentary elections (and the Congress 90-100 seats) but now it is being perceived that this number could surge for the BJP (may be 220-230) and dwindle for the Congress (at may be as low as 70).
India’s defence strategy, right from the time of Indira Gandhi, has remained flawed. Instead of opting for American arms and equipment, the country has tilted towards the Russians for arms and ammunition. And, it has been that way ever since then.
The end result: We are lagging China in weapons and even the number and quality of our fighter aircraft fall far behind our neighbour.
The navy witnessed a serious setback when INS Sindhurakshak, a submarine that had only recently returned from an extensive refit in Russia, exploded in a Mumbai dockyard, killing all the 18 on board.
This has come as a big blow to a country, which claims to have one of the best defence capabilities. But no lessons have been learnt.
Also, India's navy chief had quit about a week ago after an accident on board another submarine off the coast of Mumbai, which injured seven sailors and left two missing.
Despite seeing a slew of blunders with its Russian defence tie-up, the government is unfazed. It is learnt that India is now planning to take on lease another nuclear submarine from that country.
If India goes ahead with this new plan, it could cost the country Rs 6,000 crore and may also pave the way for more disasters or setbacks.
Unfortunately, India has never even considered American defence equipment, which in terms of quality is simply the best as well as hi-tech.
Another area of disaster for India is the MiG-21s, which are (unpopularly) known as Flying Coffins.
Between 1993 and 2000, the air force lost over 100 pilots in 280 accidents. Totally, the IAF has lost around 115 aircraft to crashes and not combat.
Instead of going for Russian fighters, India could have pitched for F-16s, one of the best fighter jets in the world, which our neighbour Pakistan uses. India could have also shopped for stealth aircraft like the B2 Bomber or the F/A-22 Raptor, which would have made India’s defence capabilities nearly at par with China’s.
The biggest defence blunder by India is the purchase of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. The original price was $947 million. The Russians upgraded it and the agreed price later (in 2009) was around $3 billion.
The carrier was named INS Vikramaditya but despite the hype and hoopla, Admiral Gorshkov failed sea trials in September 2012.
So, if Narendra Modi becomes Prime Minister, India must overhaul its defence policy in favour of the US and just dump Russia.
Sunday, August 23, 2015
Battle for Darjeeling: Roshan Giri could have defeated Bhaichung Bhutia but SS Ahluwalia may not
Darjeeling went to the polls and the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) supported BJP’s SS Ahluwalia, who does not have any kind of connect with the Hills. This is in contrast to Trinamool Congress’s Bhaichung Bhutia, who although not from Darjeeling (he is a resident of Sikkim), has easily mingled with the crowd there but if Roshan Giri was in the fray (instead of Ahluwalia), things would have been different.
Bhaichung is not only popular as a footballer in Darjeeling but he is also considered a local boy, owing to the ethnic similarities between the people of Darjeeling and Sikkim.
Now, Ahluwalia is a total alien and if he has any chance of winning, it would be because of Gorkha Janmukti Morcha or GJM chief Bimal Gurung’s clout. Well, in fact, if Ahluwalia actually wins, it would clearly make a winner out of Gurung, the champion of the Gorkhaland cause.
It would indicate that people are for Gorkhaland and firmly believe that Gurung will get it this time. (Unlike the last time, when this promise went abegging).
But what if he fails to do so? Then the first question that would come to mind is whether Gurung and the BJP tie-up should have fielded a local candidate instead.
And the best suited would have been Roshan Giri, GJM general secretary. If Giri was the candidate instead of Ahluwalia, the GJM-BJP could have swept the polls in Darjeeling.
But bringing in Ahluwalia could spell trouble for the BJP and GJM and serve as an advantage for Bhaichung, who could win by a wafer-thin margin.
But let us assume the BJP-GJM fielded Giri. He would have not only been a pure local lad but also could have taken up the Gorkhaland cause with the Union government (which opinion polls say would be led by Narendra Modi) as a GJM representative actually in Parliament. But that was not to be.
The Hills people remember that Jaswant Singh was the Darjeeling MP and he hardly visited the Hills leave alone do something for the people there. And, Bhaichung could harp on this: That the BJP did precious little last time (with Gurung support) nor had Gorkhaland taken shape.
Bhaichung argues that instead of talking about a separate state, the Hills people should harp on development, which is a pragmatic solution which today's youths want.
So, Ahluwalia, with no local connect, could be seen as an outsider or intruder and this may come as a blessing for Bhaichung, who would have been nowhere had Roshan Giri been the contender.
Monday, August 10, 2015
Anger brewing in the BJP but Narendra Modi managing well
Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP’s Narendra Modi has finally got a big boost after Telugu Desam Party or TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu decided to join the Saffron alliance (read NDA) after almost a decade but is anger brewing within the BJP?
Now, it is almost rest assured that the BJP and allies would cross the magic 272-seats mark.
But there is reason to worry on one front: Though not out into the open yet, an internal feud seems to be brewing.
With Modi at the helm and disgruntled LK Advani not getting his preferred seat (Bhopal and instead getting Gandhinagar), the possibility of a rebellion in the middle term could rock Modi’s government (that is, if he forms the government at the Centre).
Another man who doesn’t seem happy with Modi’s leadership is Murli Manohar Joshi. Joshi had to vacate the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat for Modi. Also, Sushma Swaraj and Uma Bharti could be spur a rebellion, since even they haven’t come to terms with Advani being relegated to number two.
So, Modi’s job, after he becomes Prime Minister (if at all), could be to walk the tightrope on a double-edged sword (with allies like Shiv Sena, TDP and Akali Dal on one hand) and disgruntled leaders of the Saffron party on the other.
Keeping this pack intact, Modi would have to introduce sweeping reforms to lift the economy – by bringing in foreign investors, tame prices, inflation and spur the stock markets as well as the growth rate.
Despite the possibility of a rift within quarters, we must also realise that the BJP is the offshoot of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which is a structured outfit (similar to the CPM, which is a cadre-based party).
And, we have seen that the bonding among these parties is strong as power centres are decentralised (with regional leaders being allowed to take certain decisions) and this boosts the morale of workers.
This is unlike a one-leader party like the BSP in UP, the Trinamool in Bengal or the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu where the supreme leader is the decision maker.
But if any kind of a rebellion comes to the fore prior to the general elections, this could give the opposition parties a chance to cash in and say that if the BJP can’t keep its own flock together, how can it manage the grand NDA alliance?
So for now, Modi, despite having his way (after getting the green light from Rajnath Singh, BJP chief), he has managed his rebels deftly. For instance, at all BJP’s key meetings, he has kept Advani (his mentor as well as main rebel) by his side, not giving the latter a chance to show his anger.
So, Modi seems to be fire fighting quite well. With the BJP close to the magic-figure mark (by inducting a new ally – the TDP), it cannot afford a rebel-like situation within before the elections, but it seems that Narendra Modi is managing his flock well.
Sunday, August 9, 2015
Should Aam Aadmi Party tie up with BJP?
Results of the assembly polls in the four states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh along with Delhi are most likely to spill over to the Lok Sabha elections, which could see the BJP through (thanks to the Narendra Modi wave) and a tie up between the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party or AAP of Arvind Kejriwal could augur well for the nation, saving it from a litany of fragmented regional parties.
The BJP’s chances could even get better by support from like-minded parties such as the AIADMK, Shiv Sena, TDP and Akali Dal, among others. But a situation where sections of state parties ‘trying to’ rule the roost would bring about anarchy in the country.
The results have indeed come as a slap in the face of the Congress, which has been embroiled in controversies after controversies after a litany of scams surfaced.
Adding to that has been the price rise of every item, which has virtually burnt every pocket and sparked discontent even among the upper middle class.
Now, the Aam Aadmi Party has achieved one of the biggest milestones in the history of Indian polity. Barely a few months after its formation, it has emerged a challenger to the BJP in the Delhi polls (where BJP bagged 32 seats, the AAP 28 and Congress eight while others got two seats).
The AAP has planned an expansion and it seems its anti-corruption mantra and slew of IITans, who plan to join the AAP, could make it a force to reckon with in the near future. After the Lok Sabha polls, it could just create a new breed of honest and educated politicians.
And, a tie up between the AAP and the BJP could pave the way for a stronger nation and keep off regional parties like the DMK, Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which could try to form a ‘third front’ and hinder the country’s development (as all the new front’s leaders would want their pie of the ‘India cake’, leading to indecisions or multiple views on an issue like FDI in retail or wooing foreign investors and come as a hindrance to the country’s development).
BJP’s USP during its earlier stint as the Union government has always been price control. During Atal Behari Vajpayee’s tenure as Prime Minister, prices of commodities, property, household essentials and fuel were well under control. And there was minimum corruption.
And, a pact with the AAP would bring more insight into the BJP with a host of educated and honest politicians from the AAP providing a clear road to development and inclusive growth (inclusive growth is where even the poor grow with development), which is absolutely essential to unchain the country from the shackles of poverty and third-world status.
So, shouldn’t Aam Aadmi Party tie up with the BJP and bring in a wave of development into the country for which the Congress got a chance but failed miserably.
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